live underdogs in upcoming bouts?...are there any?

[sphincter]

who are legit live underdogs in upcoming bouts?
a s-itpotload of action upcoming......on the oly board and that "other" excellent boxing book....

just curious....if anybody cares to throw out a few names of what they consider legit,live dogs......if not,o.k.....

just looks like not all these favorites are lead pipe cinches......imo...here`s some stuff...not selections...just food for thought...



1)mundine-echols....the echols layoff...the gunshot...the home court....if mundine doesn`t get stupid and try to exchange shots,i can see him having a decent shot....we`ll find out how legit lil` tony is....had a lot of excuses after the ottke loss...can he win?..will he?....i`d be more willing to wager that he can last some rounds....haven`t seen mundine...tough for me to say...

2)freitas-barrios.....barrios ,from all accounts is a very tough hombre.....was a straight ahead banger early in his career...from what i read,he has refined his style and now is a little more technically sound...i`ve never seen the guy,though.....only loss is a d.q....

3)teddy reid-elio ortiz......reid is a very tall,tough guy...can get you out of there early...ortiz is a very busy guy...has been stopped a few times,but always late in his bouts....took mayorga 10 rounds to get him out of there....if reid doesn`t get ortiz early,ortiz` work rate may cause a problem....ortiz just beat ray oliveira in ray`s backyard....outworked him...that doesn`t usually happen to oliveira(but to be fair,oliveira is on the downside of his career)....

4)juan(the hispanic causing panic....love that moniker) lazcano-stevie johnston....it all depends on what stevie has left......a lefty...a decent defensive fighter.....had some wars with castillo who gave mayweather some problems in their bouts....lazcano is naturally bigger and taller....is very busy....good body puncher.....not a tremendous one punch banger....

he`s a little wild at times and can be wide with his shots....if johnston has something left,and he just might,he could make it very difficult for lazcano....unless lazcano is just plain to big and strong....is he stronger than jose luis castillo?..thet`d be tough...castillo is very strong...something like 44-4 with around 40 k.o.`s....and johnston probably won the second bout between the two...

stevie has recent wins over tough,tough,alejandro gonzales and ever beleno....

if stevie still has something,this one looks very possible....

5)fernando montiel-mark (too sharp) johnson....my gut here is that johnson isn`t the same since the rafael marquez beatings.....but,in fairness,that was at 118....johnson may just have been in with to big a guy....by the time they hit the ring,my guess is that marquez was a good deal bigger than johnson...and marquez can punch... just ask tim austin....

johnson has never lost at 115 or under.....but,montiel is an excellent fighter...excellent bloodlines....not necessarily a big,big one punch power guy,but,an excellent combination puncher that does hurt guys...is getting most opponents out of there at this light weight...i`m waiting for eric morel to get in with irene pacheco or montiel...then,i believe the jig is up for overrated morel...

the lefty stance....johnson is slick....if montiel doesn`t overwhelm johnson or has trouble with mark`s style,who knows.....

but montiel is the goods....johnson probably has to much wear and tear...but johnson was dominant at 115...probably montiel...maybe easily...another one where alot depends on what is left in the tank for the dog....+330...that`s a little high,imo...

6)juan manuel marquez-derrick "smoke" gainer....let me say from the top,that i am a huge marquez fan....i love the guy`s style....he breaks opponents down..in typical mexican style...up and down,to the body and the head....a beautiful guy to watch...and imo,a real,legit challenge to morales and barrera...his problem,i think,is that he can occasionally be a little to economical with his punches...

gainer is probably a very bad choice of opponents for marquez...this guy is the wild card of the featherweight division...a real spoiler....that lefty stance...the height...and some dangerous punching power....

gainer handled what was a budding superstar in freddie "lil hagler" norwood....another tough lefty that has knocked down and beaten marquez....norwood put marquez on the canvas and juan manuel became very conservative for the remainder of the fight...a strange awkward bout...not marquez` shining moment...

if this awkward lefty style still causes problem`s for marquez,gainer may be a problem....it`s possible....i hope not...i`m looking forward to seeing marquez vs barrera and morales....

i don`t expect gainer to roll over here...

7)baby joe mesi-davarryl williamson......if this were anywhere but buffalo,i`d be taking a flyer on williamson.....a stringbean,very thin but tall(6`4")...and can really punch.....has hung tough and dispatched a tough corey "t rex" sanders" who was enormous and on a bit of a roll himself...

but mesi reminds me of paul spadafora and sven ottke....you just can`t get them away from home....

i`m not entirely sold on mesi...i suspect that he won`t see a real opponent at a neutral site until he`s fighting for one of the bogus titles....and THAT will probably be in buffalo as well...i hope williamson can end this dog and pony show.....probably not,but he has a punchers chance....

8)markus beyer-danny green.......have some people telling me green is very tough...they love him in this bout ..16-0 w/16 k.o.`s.....very sketchy competition,though..and it`s in germany......and the guys that hipped me to him are aussie`s themselves(lol)....what`d i expect? .....aussie,aussie....oi..oi..oi....lmao.....

trying to dig up some more on ole danny....

i purposefully left out peden-pearson,toney holifield and casamayor-corrales....these are,imo,toss-ups....

i`m not necessarily touting them as picks or plays....but just some info ...some food for thought...

every dog here could lose...hell,that`s why their all dogs

g.l. guys...

 

[Gillian]

I'll say only one thing... GAINER is a total joke and if it wasn't for Roy jone... that goof wouldn't be anyware. Fuk him.

 

[almly]

I think that I would like to bet against Gainer but I have never seen Marquez fight.

 

[tgoodm1]

I don't see Marcos Primera getting stopped by Shawn Garnett in his upcoming bout on Tuesday Night Fights on ESPN. Therefore, for every note you lay on Primera, lay 200 on the over 9 1/2 rds. This is a hedge bet. If he gets outboxed you should break even. I feel that he has a shot to win because he possesses power and has upset opponents in the past.

Likely scenarios: Primera wins by ko (net 400) Garnett wins by decision (break even)

 

[tgoodm1]

The next live underdog has to be Jesse Brinkley in this upcoming Friday Night Fights bout against Danny Perez.

Reasons:
1.Venue can be considered his hometown (Las Vegas-state of birth).
2.Brinkley has a very good record and he is coming off of two impressive KO wins this year.
3.Brinkley has fought at middleweight his entire career, whereas his opponent welterweight.
4.His opponent's only fought once this year and Brinkley is fresh off of quick victories in June and July (hence, Brinkley should be in great shape).

Note: Perez lost to a great fighter in Antonio Margarito by 12UD. But to lose 120-108, 120-108, and 118-110 on the scorecards says a lot about how bad his boxing skills may be. He basically didn't win any rounds. He must be a brawler.

In all, I think it's worth laying 120 to win 100 on the over 7 1/2 for every 100 you lay on Brinkley at +420.

By the way, the money line on Brinkley had been as high as +600.

Good Luck!!!

 

[sphincter]

i could see betting a sixpack on brinkley....at 6-1,that`s all it`d take to get a decent return on investment.....

another primera,b.f.?

......i must add that perez lost twice to margarito....the first one was a majority decision.....

the rub here is that perez has an excellent chin and is tall....brinkley probably can`t stop perez.....can he hang in for 12 rds?......my gut says no....but,that said,why not put a 10 or 20 spot on brinkley at 6 to 1?....

 

[tgoodm1]

My concern is that Brinkley last for at least midway through the eighth round. If he can do that, I at least break even no matter what the outcome.

By the way, the money line dropped to +420 today at Olympic. It had been as high as +600 for at least 3 or 4 days.

 

[sphincter]

oly threw up a prop with verno phillips/michael lerma over 9.5 at -300......that`s pretty substantial...and i very seldom lay those odds.......just to damn much money to take a big chance on a cut or something stupid happening....but,neither guy gets stopped...period....and neither is a huge puncher.....without an unusual occurence,probably a decision....much like cauthen-quiles last week....

but i`d play it small ...so you don`t get hurt by something out of the ordinary...

marcos licona,the replacement for smoke gainer,is very durable.....and i wonder about juan marquez` focus here.....

kassim ouma is better than carlos bojourquez...but he struggled in his last bout....and isn`t much of a power puncher.....the line moved from -245 to -300 before i could blink....damn...

the oddsmakers are sharp...

 

[Royler]

Good to see you posting again, Sphinc...

Barrios proved to have terrific value. I took him for just a few bucks at post time, and he nearly pulled it off. Getting dropped at the bell was crushing. What a beat!

Didn't post any Pride picks this time around because all the chalk favs came in as expected...no real value on the card. Gonna have everyone take a close look at the September UFC with Couture/Ortiz. Randy will wind up being a sizable 'dog and he could pull off the upset.

 

[sphincter]

he`s 40 yrs old ...and he has the belt...i`m leaning toward ortiz being pumped to get it back......

couture pulled a nice upset of liddell via strikes....but was taken to the mat and badly beaten by josh barnett and rico rodriguez....i`m pretty sure that ortiz will try and get this to the mat....much like the ken shamrock bout....

i know that couture has come down from heavy....but,40 is 40....his stamina has looked bad in some of his recent losses...and ortiz,even with the layoff,is arguably the best pfp mma fighter right now....and if the tale of the tape is correct,ortiz is actually slightly bigger than couture....

look,i love couture...couture and don frye....these guys are the epitome of tough....i just think he`s biting off more than he can chew....

ortiz won`t stand there and exchange like liddell...


btw..regarding the pride card.....i had quentin jackson over arona(and then bustamante) and liddell over overeem....hope you did o.k. last weekend..

p.s...know anything about k-1.....i know old ufc fighter kimo is fighting monster bob sapp.....that guy is incredible looking....he makes these so-called steroid ridden "pro" wrestlers look like calista flockhart.......g.l.

 

[Royler]

Sphinc, you're right on re: Couture. But no one (including myself) gave him a shot against Liddell. He was expected to be demolished and instead absolutely dismantled the #1 Light-Heavy. Everyone is saying he can't handle Ortiz on the ground. "They" (and again, I) said he couldn't deal with Liddell standing. Randy delights in proving us wrong.

The fight with Ortiz is completely different stylistically. But consider: Couture can and will outbox him on the feet. Ortiz shies from strikes and will work the clinch. Problem is, there's another Couture strong-point.

Randy will probably get strong-armed to the mat, but I can tell you he'll be drilling sweeps for the next two months. Tito has no heart and no taste for the fight game. If Randy can mount him, it will be over quickly, especially if Ortiz is worn down from stand-up exchanges.

The age and strength difference is why Ortiz will get chalk. But EVERY time Couture has been counted out (Belfort, Smith, Randleman, Rizzo, Liddell), he has won. The losses to Rodriguez and Barnett were to much larger men. Rodriguez came in at 270 for Pride this weekend. No, he didn't weight that for Randy, but that is still one massive frame. Couture fits 205 like a glove.

I'll admit it right now: the storybook ending is for Randy to whip the prima donna, and my desire to see that could wind up costing me. But Couture will forever be the liveliest dog in the combat sports.

There's nothing in K-1 that interests me...Sapp will maul Kimo in a fight designed to get him over with US fans. If you want to lay the -2200, let me talk to you about a loan.

 

[sphincter]

i know about as much about k-1 as arianna huffington knows about governing california and saving energy(no suv`s,,,but she`ll hop a private jet

)....my knowledge of k-1 is....rick roufus..and a little about michael mcdonald....not enough to wager anything....

i agree with your opinion regarding how tough couture is....if i didn`t have money on ortiz,i`d be rooting my ass off for couture to embarass ortiz....i don`t like the guy either ....

but after i looked at the whole picture,i just couldn`t put my money,in good conscience,on a 40 year old guy that doesn`t look like the same guy i used to watch...so many wars....to many beatings of late.....

we`ll see...you`ll be getting some odds...you might want to hold off...i see these odds going up before fight time....

this is not my area of expertise,i admit....you may very well be right....i`ll hate losing the bread.....but i`ll love seeing ortiz lose....

g.l.

 

[franks.]

Marquez-Licona; taking the OVER 8 rounds-120
here. Two tough guys; see it going into the deep
end of the pool.

 

[sphincter]

a sharpie i know is taking montiel by k.o.,stoppage,d.q,recall....you know.....-125...also likes the under in this bout at -110(under 10.5)....

just an fyi.....

btw....i took a very small whack at over 8 also....pocket change...

[This message was edited by sphincter on August 13, 2003 at 11:51 PM.]

 

[tgoodm1]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Boxing Freak:
The next live underdog has to be Jesse Brinkley in this upcoming Friday Night Fights bout against Danny Perez.

Reasons:
1.Venue can be considered his hometown (Las Vegas-state of birth).
2.Brinkley has a very good record and he is coming off of two impressive KO wins this year.
3.Brinkley has fought at middleweight his entire career, whereas his opponent welterweight.
4.His opponent's only fought once this year and Brinkley is fresh off of quick victories in June and July (hence, Brinkley should be in great shape).

Note: Perez lost to a great fighter in Antonio Margarito by 12UD. But to lose 120-108, 120-108, and 118-110 on the scorecards says a lot about how bad his boxing skills may be. He basically didn't win any rounds. He must be a brawler.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Now that I have seen Perez in action for the first time, I can see how Margarito managed to dominate the entire fight as he took just about every round on all scorecards. Perez has a tendency to get lazy and allow his opponent to outwork him, which is just what took place in this fight with Brinkley. Perez may have been more polished, but he allowed Brinkley to steal the fight in the later rounds because of his inactivity, which was much to my benefit.

 

[tgoodm1]

The next live underdog has to be Epifanio Mendoza in tonight's ESPN 2 Friday Night Fights Co-headliner. Mendoza comes right at you with hard shots and he must be able to take a punch as he has never been stopped. 17-2-1 (17 KOs)

My recommendation is to take Mendoza along with the over for hedging purposes. By the way this guy he is fighting, Lonnie Bradley, may be unbeaten, but it has been a year since his last fight and he has only fought 3 times in the past 6 years. You have to go with Mendoza on this one.

 

[tgoodm1]

To add, Bradley is already in his mid 30's trying to make a comeback and his opposition has all been mediocre. Check out what his opponents have done since losing to him. Hence, this is a matchup of youth, aggresiveness, and power vs one who is on the downside of his career who ought to show a lot of rust while in versus his opponent tonight. Should be an entertaining matchup. Good luck!!!

 

[sphincter]

when did this bout post???i knew cervera pulled out....i`m shocked that bradley`s people are taking mendoza as a sub....he might be tougher than cervera.....he will definitely be dangerous early.....he caught tokunbo olajide by surprise and put him down in the first round(olajide injured his ankle and couldn`t continue)....

mendoza,if i recall,is very tall....and throws alot of wild punches...

i had bradley-cervera over exactly because bradley has basically been inactive for years....33 yrs old....

he used to be pretty good...no way can he be sharp here....

but,mendoza has a slew of nobody`s on his resume....

still,bradley may be shot....

if you want to take a shot with b,f,`s hedge,get mendoza at 5 dimes for +220....

 

[tgoodm1]

True, every boxer seems to have a ton of nobody's on their resume until they meet tougher opposition. I believe Mendoza is already stepping up. As you mentioned Sphinc, he upset Olajide. In addition, he reduced the members of Detroit's famed "Team Cannon" to two fighters after he destoyed Rubin Williams in 42 seconds of rd 1. Now after having been defeated by Mendoza, all of a sudden these two fighters are nobody's? The same will be said after tonight if Bradley is KO'd by Mendoza. I guess fighters like Mendoza and Mayorga never get their respect until they win titles.

 

[sphincter]

i never said olajide is a nobody....i explained that that fight was stopped more due to a leg injury than a k.o.....although there was a legit knockdown of olajide...rubin williams at this point in his career IS a nobody....until he beats somebody....


g.l. with the play....i`m on it as well....very small,though...